Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Treasury Yield Creeping Up Along with Refinance Mortgage Rates

In the span of a few short weeks, the yield on the 10-Year treasury has bolted up by more than one-half of a percentage point. That is a major move in treasuries and confirms the current investor mood is getting a bit comfier at the year’s end.

Whether investor sentiment moving away from long term bonds in favor of riskier and higher yielding investments is smart here is not our call, we can only work with what is given. Of course we know that as the 10-Year treasury yield goes up, so does refinance mortgage rates. So, with the recent investor movement out of 10-Year bonds and into the equities market, mortgage rates have bounced up off historic lows by almost one-half percent, roughly the same amount as the rise in the 10-Year Treasury Yield.

Fortunately for those still considering a home refinance, mortgage rates are still in good shape with the current par or “even” rate on the 30-year fixed home loan standing near 5.25 percent.

The big test for further and significant increases to mortgage refinance rates will be the 4.0 percent level on the 10-year treasury. Back in June of this year, we almost breached the 4.0 percent level, but there was strong resistance at that mark. The 10-year ultimately fell back to levels near 3.2 percent in November.

Just as with stocks, major resistance levels, once breached, can lead to a major move upward. The10-year treasury 4.0 percent mark is the major resistance level to pay attention to as far as refinance mortgage rates are concerned. A solid close above this level could be a bad sign for mortgage rates, at least in the short-term.

I know that there are many people that held out when rates recently hit historic lows, but refinance rates are still in great shape for those considering a lock. Yes, they have bounced off their lows, but the risk that interest rates will rise significantly higher still outweighs the risk that they will fall like a rock at current levels.

In housing, the S&P composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas was flat in October, falling short of expectations for a rise of 0.2 percent according to a Reuters survey. September's index was revised upward to a gain of 0.4 percent, from a previously reported 0.3 percent.

Some would leave you to believe that the housing market has now stabilized, but that assessment may be preliminary. A continued rise in home defaults along with a huge crop of foreclosures waiting to hit the listing market could produce another wave of falling home prices. Continued low mortgage rates along with improvement in consumer confidence and employment could help to curtail further home price drops. We’ll just have to wait and see where the ball bounces from here.

If you are considering a home mortgage refinance now and need some help, have questions, or need some competitive refinance rate quotes, please check out the popular Refinance Tool Box. Just give a call at 888-850-9888 or fill out a Rate Quote Request online for professional assistance without the aggressive high-pressure sales tactics.

May the Mortgage Refinance Rates be with You!

Refinance Tool Box

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Current Steep Bond Market Yield Curve can affect Mortgage Refinance Rates

Those that follow the Refinance Toolbox blog know that US bond yields play a major role in the mortgage refinance rates offered to the public by lenders. More specifically, it’s the yield on the US 10-Year Treasury, which is the benchmark for home mortgage interest rates. As the yield goes up, rates go up and vice-versa.

Mortgage rates have recently been holding at the lowest levels in history, thanks in large part to a consistent low treasury yield.

Over the past several days, the “Yield Curve” has been getting steeper. The yield curve is the difference between rates on short-term and long-term Treasuries, and is currently at its highest level ever. This tells us that investors are expecting a strong economic turnaround ahead, and are selling out of longer-term US treasuries, such as the 10-year treasury, in favor of higher return investment vehicles.

As the 10-year treasuries get sold, the bond price drops, and the yield goes up. Not a great thing for refinance mortgage rates.

Banks once again are the big winners here. They borrow from the Fed at short-term rates near zero, while higher long-term rates mean even bigger risk-free profits for the industry.

Consumers on the other hand, get slapped again. Most mortgages and many other types of loans are pegged to long-term rates, a steeper yield curve means a higher cost of borrowing for most consumers and businesses.

Refinance mortgage rates have lifted a bit off their lows, but are still in great shape. But, we’ll have to keep an eye on the 10-year treasury yield. It closed yesterday at 3.744%, still in good shape, but a whopping one-half percent higher than it was only 2 weeks ago.

Continued stronger-than expected economic reports and hints of future inflation could send the yield over 4.0% very quickly. Since the current mortgage spread premium is now in historic check, you could expect mortgage rates to rise with the treasuries step for step.

In continued good news for the housing market, home re-sales surged last month to the highest level in nearly three years. Much of the sales increase is due to buyers racing to complete their sales before the original expiration date of a tax credit for first-time buyers, originally scheduled to expire Nov. 30.

The housing market recovery, however, is still facing strong headwinds, as high unemployment figures continue with no clear end in sight. Mortgage defaults are still setting records and some experts warn that hundreds of thousands of foreclosed properties have yet to be put up for sale. Plenty of traditional sellers are also keeping their homes off the market, hoping for a better price.

So what does this mean for those looking to refinance their home? Well, mortgage refinance rates are still in great shape, but as you can see by the current steep yield curve, could be heading northward. It might not be such a bad idea to check on locking your interest rate now, as the risk of rates going up significantly far outweighs a drop in refinance rates at current levels.

Just make sure to receive a thorough pre-qualification from your refinancing lender before you pull the trigger. You want to have reasonable idea of your home’s value along with an analysis of your credit standing and income ratios for mortgage qualification purposes. If you qualify based on a solid pre-qualification, there is no reason not to lock at current refinance rates if it creates the financial benefit you are looking to achieve.

If you are considering a home mortgage refinance now and need some help, have questions, or need some competitive refinance rate quotes, please check out the popular Refinance Tool Box. Just give a call at 888-850-9888 or fill out a Rate Quote Request online for professional assistance without the aggressive high-pressure sales tactics.

May the Mortgage Refinance Rates be with You!

Refinance Tool Box

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Many Self-Employed Missing Out on Low Refinance Mortgage Rates

The subprime mortgage meltdown along with its banking crisis aftershock has hurt the chances of many self-employed individuals looking to take advantage of today’s historic low refinance mortgage rates. After banking balance sheets and liquidity took a severe downturn, mortgage lenders began to tighten up their underwriting guidelines for offer refinance programs.

No-Doc and Reduced-Doc loans were among the first casualties of the tightened lending standards. The option for a homeowner to refinance with anything but a fully-documented income loan is pretty much non-existent in today’s refinance lending environment.

Why you might ask? Well, mortgage lenders do not want to take on any risk after the meltdown. A Full-Doc loan gives them the most assurance of the ability of the refinancing homeowner to repay their loan.

Self-employed individuals have been impacted greatly by mortgage lender restrictions on loan program options. During the great housing boom earlier this decade, most self-employed people simply used a “Stated Income” loan to either refinance or purchase a home. This option was used because mortgage lenders use the bottom-line income for self-employed individuals, after tax write-offs for fully documented loans. Since most self-employed people will not qualify Full Doc after income tax write-offs, the stated income loan option was a very nice deal.

Now that stated income refinance loans have fallen by the wayside, there is little option for the self-employed if their bottom-line numbers do not meet refinance program debt-to-income (DTI) ratio guidelines.

One option for a self-employed person that misses the DTI ratio is to add a working spouse, domestic partner, or other adult individual the permanently resides in the home to the refinance mortgage application. The added income could be enough to meet the DTI guidelines and allow the homeowner to refinance.

Unfortunately, adding another person to the mortgage may not be an option, or may not be something that a homeowner wishes to do. Yes, many self-employed people have been painted into the corner with the current refinancing loan restrictions.

You might also ask why mortgage lenders are not doing more to help out homeowners, self-employed or otherwise, after taxpayer dollars came in to save their behinds? At the moment, the mortgage lenders are fending for themselves and are not required to make loans if they do not wish. It’s unfortunate that the TARP bailout money given to them did not have any strings attached in this vain.

In fact, bank balance sheets are getting stronger and stronger with many of the fat cats actually paying back TARP funds to the government. Still, no relenting on mortgage underwriting guidelines and little help for those trying to get a loan modification.

President Obama has recently put some political pressure on the banks to begin lending once again, but it’s a tough industry to lobby. We’ll have to wait and see if any future legislation or other governmental action with teeth can help to open up the lending guidelines in the near future, but it is going to be tough.

It may not be until the economy and housing markets recover more robustly, that less restrictive refinancing mortgage programs are offered for the self-employed and other homeowners that would benefit significantly with a home refinance.

If you are considering a home mortgage refinance now and need some help, have questions, or need some competitive refinance rate quotes, please check out the popular Refinance Tool Box. Just give a call at 888-850-9888 or fill out a Rate Quote Request online for professional assistance without the aggressive high-pressure sales tactics.

May the Mortgage Refinance Rates be with You!

Refinance Tool Box

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Mortgage Refinance Rates Set Another Record Low – How Long Will it Last?

The mortgage refinance rates environment hit another record low last week. The average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage dropped to a record low of 4.71 percent. The previous record of 4.78 percent was set during the week ending April 30 and matched last week. The average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low of 4.27 percent, from 4.29 percent last week, according to Freddie Mac.


As the Federal Reserve continues to pump funds into mortgage-backed securities, rates have continued to drop. The continued rush of investors into the security of US Treasuries has also lent a heaping dose of rate drop in recent weeks.

In the face of recent historic low refinance mortgage rate news is the loan qualification question for many homeowners. Refinancing lenders have tightened their standards dramatically over the past year. Credit score and loan-to-value (LTV) requirements have tightened, while “stated-income” and other reduced documentation loan types have disappeared from the refinancing landscape.

Home prices have fallen, and it is estimated that 23 percent of homeowners with a mortgage, owe more on their home loans than their house is currently worth according to First American CoreLogic, a real estate information company. This is creating a major qualification problem for many American homeowners that could benefit significantly with a home refinance at current mortgage interest rates.

Those that do not qualify for an 80 percent LTV refinance home loan with excellent credit scores should check out an FHA refinance. The FHA loan program currently allows a homeowner to finance up to 97 percent of the value of their home with a qualifying mid credit score as low as a 620. In fact, many borrowers have switched from conventional mortgages to FHA refinance loans for significant savings and benefit at the current low historic refinance rates.

So, how long will mortgage rates stay this low? For those that follow the Refinance Toolbox Blog, you will know that we never predict where mortgage rates will go, but report on the current events impacting interest rates and future events that could move mortgage rates in a significant fashion.

Putting on our “common sense” hat for a second, it would appear that further future reduction to mortgage rates will be minimal at best, with a likelier probability that interest rates will rise. The rise in refinance rates could be significant.

An improving economy could lend itself to a dramatic increase in the 10-Year Treasury yield. The yield has held at historic lows for quite some time as investors like the security during national economic turmoil while inflation is kept in check. As the treasury-yield goes up, mortgage refinance rates will rise.

Current mortgage rates have been kept artificially low due in large part to the US government bailout plan, in which the Federal Reserve is spending $1.2 Trillion to buy-up mortgage-backed securities. This program is due to end in April, 2010, and could have a significant impact to rising mortgage rates.

Although inflation numbers have been kept in check for the moment, a future inflation jump could lend a helping hand to rapidly rising refinance mortgage rates. Many are concerned that the government’s bailout effort will lead to significant inflation down the road. The feeling is that too much money has been printed, which will cause some major inflation problems at some point.

Well, should I lock my rate now?

After a solid refinance pre-qualification, it would not only be a good time to lock your interest rate, but a great time to take advantage of the lowest mortgage rates available since the number has been tracked. The risk that mortgage rates will rise significantly is much greater than the risk that you will lock as rates continue downward.

If you are considering a home mortgage refinance now and need some help, have questions, or need some competitive refinance rate quotes, please check out the popular Refinance Tool Box. Just give a call at 888-850-9888 or fill out a Rate Quote Request online for professional assistance without the aggressive high-pressure sales tactics.

May the Mortgage Refinance Rates be with You!

Refinance Tool Box

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Rates on 30-Year Refinance Mortgages Sink, Match Record Low

While employment, housing, and the economy in general remain in tough shape, refinance and home purchase mortgage rates have officially sunk to record lows. Last week, Freddie Mac reported that average rates on 30-year mortgages have fallen to a level matching the record low interest rates reached this past spring. Rates for 30-year mortgages averaged 4.78 percent last week, down from 4.83 percent the prior week and equaling the record low reached the week of April 30.

The average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.29 percent, down from 4.32 percent last week, according to Freddie Mac. The 15-year rate hasn't been this low since Freddie Mac started tracking it in 1991. Rates on five-year, adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 4.18 percent, down from last week's 4.25 percent. Rates on one-year, adjustable-rate mortgages were 4.35 percent for the second consecutive week.

It is important to note that the rates do not include add-on fees known as points. The nationwide fee for loans in Freddie Mac's survey averaged 0.7 point for 30-year and one-year loans. The fee averaged 0.6 point for 15-year and five-year mortgages.

So, what does this all mean?

It means that homeowners could very well be in a position to refinance into a historic low mortgage rate and benefit financially for numerous home loan scenarios.

While refinance mortgage rates are so low, lets go over some possible refinancing scenarios that could pack a powerful savings punch for both short-term and long-term loan scenarios.

One option that can produce both short-term and long-term benefits is the regular refinance into a 30-year fixed mortgage. Most qualified homeowners should be able to shave at least 1 to 2 percentage points off of their current mortgage rate. Depending upon the loan amount, monthly savings can be quite significant.

Another option is to refinance for short and long-term goals is to do a debt consolidation loan. Borrowers that qualify normally reduce their overall monthly payments by several hundreds per month with this strategy when interest rates are even much higher than current, so this option could be a huge money-saver for those holding credit card, auto, and installment loan debt.

How about getting that 1st and 2nd mortgage refinanced into one historic low fixed rate? The savings can be quite significant and reduce the hassle of holding 2 mortgages. This could be an especially enticing option for those that currently hold variable rate 2nd mortgages and HELOC loans. The Fed is hinting that short-term rates may be rising soon, which could cause those variable interest rates and corresponding monthly payments to rise significantly.

Maybe it’s time to refinance out of that ARM mortgage? If you are currently in an ARM, your current mortgage rate might not be that bad, but for the reasons mentioned prior, it could be a good time to jump out of that variable rate before they soar up again.

I’ll mention one more power-packed benefit loan scenario and my all-time favorite for taking advantage of today’s low rates. It’s of course, refinancing into a shorter-term mortgage. The caveat here is that your monthly principal and interest will most likely increase, but if you qualify and are comfortable with the new monthly payment, watch out! Those refinancing from a 30-year loan into a 15 year mortgage at today’s rates will typically save anywhere from fifty thousand to the hundreds of thousands of dollars (depending upon borrower’s current interest rate and loan size) in saved interest over the term of the loan. And you might be surprised that your monthly payment does not go up as much as you might think, because of how the amortization repayment schedule works on a shorter-term mortgage loan.

Are those enough options? Enough of a reason to check out a home refinance at today’s rates? Actually, there are probably countless other refinancing scenarios that can produce significant benefits for borrowers at the current interest rates, but I just wanted to go over a few of the major ones.

I try not to be a sales-pitch man with the information provided here, but at current refinance rate levels, many people are eligible for some great financial deals. In today’s tough economic times, any bit of financial relief can be a great benefit for individuals and families across the US. Whether you request information or rate quotes from the Refinance Tool Box, or another place, a home refinance might be worth checking out for your benefit.

If you are considering a home mortgage refinance now and need some help, have questions, or need some competitive refinance rate quotes, please check out the popular Refinance Tool Box. Just give a call at 888-850-9888 or fill out a Rate Quote Request online for professional assistance without the aggressive high-pressure sales tactics.

May the Mortgage Refinance Rates be with You!

Refinance Tool Box